By Daniel Flynn

Dakar - A crop of African leaders changing constitutional rules to cling to power, from Uganda to Chad and perhaps also Nigeria, shows democracy is still struggling to take root in many parts of the world's poorest continent.

As multi-party politics sprung up across Africa in the 1990s, in the wake of the Cold War and the collapse of apartheid, it stirred hopes of an "African Renaissance" - an end to the "Big Man" politics which dominated the continent since independence.

But while economic reform flourished, the democratic promise of a new generation of African leaders, aware of the continent's problems but tolerant of dissent, has dwindled amid authoritarian measures and a thirst for power from some.

"There were hopes for a democratic renewal in Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya and Congo," said Patrick Smith, editor of London's Africa Confidential.

"But there is no question if you look at the last couple of years the democracy-meter has shifted back into the negative."

Among the starkest examples is Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, who promised a change from the blood-soaked regimes of Milton Obote and Idi Amin when he seized power in 1986.

Named by former US President Bill Clinton as the leader of the "African Renaissance", the 62-year-old former rebel won re-election to a third term in power in February after scrapping term limits and persecuting his rival for treason.

He joined leaders from Guinea, Gabon, Burkina Faso and Chad who have used constitutional changes to extend their rule.

The reputations of other members of the "new breed" such as Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia - a member of Tony Blair's Commission for Africa - have also suffered as they repressed or silenced opponents.

"This is not just a third term issue. This is about protecting democratic institutions, NGOs and civil society, which are increasingly coming under attack," said Stephen Morrison of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

But it is the campaign by supporters of Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to allow him a third term in Africa's most populous country that has rung alarm bells loudest.

Obasanjo has ruled the oil producer since its return to democracy in 1999.

"The ethnic and religious divisions in Nigeria threaten chaos if Obasanjo wins a third term," said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, Africa analyst with Eurasia Group.

"It will be very hard for Nigeria to provide leadership on democratic issues if Obasanjo changes the constitution."

The third-term campaign has stirred violent opposition from Muslims and ethnic groups in Nigeria opposed to another four year term for Obasanjo, a Christian from the southwestern Yoruba tribe.

It is symptomatic of ethnic tensions across Africa.

"At the moment, democracy in Africa is really just juggling regional, ethnic interests. It is regarded as democracy but it does not give people any ideological options," said Smith.

Ruling cliques often hold a president in power because they fear a loss of economic benefits or even persecution.

From veteran strongman Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe to Teodoro Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, ethnic interests underpin governments.

International conditions, meanwhile, have eased the pressure for democratic reform.

The increasingly voracious appetite of China and India for African resources has provided trading partners who analysts say are less fussy about rights abuses.

Washington's concern over the spread of radical Islam in the Horn of Africa and the arid Sahel belt has also encouraged it at times to turn a blind eye to governments and leaders with chequered rights records, analysts say.

"In many ways this is like a return to the Cold War - African countries can play foreign powers off against one another," said Smith.

"Only it is 'Cold War plus'... There are ideological, political and economic interests at stake."

With many African governments relying on foreign aid for much of their budget, observers say donors should use their leverage to encourage reform.

"Easy foreign money is the very basis of bad government here," said Ugandan political commentator Andrew Mwenda.

"If a government depends on resources collected from its own people, it will be forced into dialogue."

The picture is not entirely negative, particularly in southern Africa, where Nelson Mandela's resignation after one term as South Africa's president in 1999 was widely seen as a sign to other leaders to limit their tenure.

In Mozambique and Namibia, veteran leaders quietly stepped aside last year after decades in power. While in Zambia and Malawi, the people rejected attempts to reform the constitution to allow leaders a third term.

South African President Thabo Mbeki also won praise for his decision to step aside after two terms.

Some commentators criticised his failure to groom an heir apparent but others point to Western examples where no such succession is prepared.

"The question of lack of a successor or lack of a designated one is far-fetched. Look at the United States. Can you tell who will succeed George Bush?" said Prince Mashele, senior researcher at Pretoria's Institute of Security Studies.

"The key debate is around respecting the constitution."

Additional reporting by Daniel Wallis in Kampala and Manoah Esipisu in Johannesburg

Published on the Web by IOL on 2006-05-12 09:35:39